Simpler Labs · For training & certification providers

How much revenue is your lead flow leaving behind?

Two leaks, one P&L: slow follow-up quietly shrinks every month's new-lead conversion, and the leads that don't convert pile up as a dormant database nobody works. This calculator prices both, and shows its math.

GROUNDED IN RESEARCH FROM MIT · Harvard · HBR
Your numbers
$1,600
$

What one closed sale is worth, a seat, a cohort spot, a certification package.

200
102,000
5%
1%30%

Of 100 new inquiries, how many enroll today?

2,000
025,000

Every inquiry from the past 1–3 years that never enrolled.

Industry average is 42 hours (HBR audit of 2,241 companies). Be honest.

OPTIONAL
$

If you know your ad cost per lead, we'll show what happens to your cost per enrollment.

Share of old leads with a valid contact.

Discount to list price actually collected.

Resets when you switch scenarios.

Expected: speed lift ×1.6 · reactivation 2.5%
Year-one recovery opportunity
$0
Recurring gains ×12, plus a one-time sweep of your existing database.
Speed-to-lead lift
+$0
per month, recurring
Reactivation flywheel
+$0
per month, from recycled leads
Database sweep
$0
one-time, first ~90 days
Cost per enrollment
$0 $0 −0%
same ad spend, more enrollments
Today: 10 enrollments · $16.0K/mo
Book a growth review →
20 minutes. We audit your actual lead base against these numbers.
The upside

Monthly revenue: today vs. achievable

Recurring streams only, the one-time database sweep is excluded so nothing is double-counted.

Today
$0
Achievable
$0
$0
$0
Current revenue
Speed-to-lead lift
Reactivation flywheel

The mechanism

Nothing is wasted: the lead flywheel

Faster follow-up converts more leads today. The ones who aren't ready yet don't disappear, they feed the dormant pool your reactivation campaigns harvest later.

The math

Show the math

Every number above comes from one of these four formulas, using your inputs. No black box.

Speed-to-lead lift+$0/mo
lift = leads × (conv′ − conv) × revenue · conv′ = conv × speed multiplier, capped at 3× and +15 pts

The multiplier is deliberately conservative. The MIT study found qualification odds 21× higher at 5 minutes vs 30; we model 1.05–2.5× depending on your current response time and scenario. If conservative math still shows six figures, imagine the real number.

Database sweep (one-time)$0
sweep = old leads × reachable% × reactivation% × revenue × value%

Reactivation flywheel (recurring)+$0/mo
flywheel = leads × (1 − conv′) × reachable% × reactivation% × revenue × value%

Note the model is honest with itself: better speed-to-lead means fewer leads go dormant, so improving conversion slightly shrinks the future reactivation pool. The formula uses the improved rate (conv′), not the current one.

Cost per enrollment
today = CPL ÷ conv · achievable = (leads × CPL) ÷ (leads × conv′ + flywheel sales)

The receipts

Where the assumptions come from

Most calculators in this space cite statistics that have no traceable source. These are the ones that survive scrutiny, and we scaled them down.

SOURCE
FINDING
HOW WE USE IT
MIT / Oldroyd, 2007
Contact odds 100× higher at 5 min vs 30 min; qualification odds 21× higher. 15,000 leads, 100,000+ call attempts.
Anchors the speed multiplier curve, which we cap at 2.5×, a fraction of the measured effect.
Harvard Business Review, 2011
Audit of 2,241 companies: average first response 42 hours; 23% never responded; 1-hour responders 7× more likely to qualify the lead.
Sets the default response-time bucket and validates the lift curve's shape.
Castleman & Page (Harvard), 2014
Text-message nudges to stalled enrollees lifted matriculation 3–8 points at $7–200 per student.
The education-sector proof that low-cost reactivation outreach moves enrollment.
Disclosed reactivation funnels, 2026
A published AI-SDR funnel: 1,486 dormant contacts → 40% response → 2.8% booked. Vendor-disclosed ranges cluster at 2–7% of database → sale.
Bounds the reactivation-rate scenarios: 1.5% / 2.5% / 5%.
What we won't claim: the widely-quoted "78% of buyers purchase from the first responder" and "reactivation is 5–10× cheaper than new leads" have no verifiable primary source, so they're not in this model. And there is no rigorous published study of stale-inquiry reactivation for certification providers specifically, which is why every assumption above is editable.
Year-one opportunity
$0
See results